Biblioteka Uniwersytecka

Cuvānt inainte . . 15

I LUMINI ŞI UMBRE ALE RELAŢIILOR ROMANO-POLONE IN PERIOADA INTERBELICA . . 17
II INTERESE ASIMETRICE INTRE BUCUREŞTI ŞI VARŞOVIA IN POLITICA EXTERNA . . 39
III 1938 - DESPRE AGONIA PĂCII IN FAŢA PRESIUNILOR VITALITĂŢII GERMANE . . 59
IV GALAŢI: ÎNTÂLNIREA CAROL AL II-LEA-BECK SAU CUM S-A DEZMEMBRAT CADAVRUL UNUI ALIAT . . 91
V ULTIMELE NOUĂ LUNI DE PACE IN LUME . . 109
VI PROLOGUL RĂZBOIULUI . . 177
VII IZBUCNIREA RĂZBOIULUI . . 187

Cronologia evenimentelor în perioada 1938-1939 în contextul derulării relaţiilor româno-polone . . 271

ANEXE DOCUMENTARE . . 283
NOTA ASUPRA EDIŢIEI . . 285
LISTA DOCUMENTELOR . . 809
BIBLIOGRAFIE . . 825
INDICE DE NUME . . 831

Uvod . . 9
Introduction . . 12

Soupis pramenū a literatury — List of Sources and Literature . . 15
Použitė zkratky - Abbreviations Used . . 23
Soupisy obrazových příloh . . 26

DĚJINY KLÁŠTERA . . 31
Prameny a literatura . . 33
Dějiny kláštera . . 39

HISTORY OF THE MONASTERY . . 89
Historical Sources and Literature . . 91
A Brief History of the Monastery . . 96

DIPLOMATARIUM . . 103
Ediční zásady . . 105
Editing Principles . . 109
Listiny - Documents . . 113

INDEX RERUM, PERSONARUM ET LOCORUM . . 287

Summary . . 398
Ediční poznámka . . 399

Acknowledgements . . xiii
List of Illustrations . . xv

Introduction . . 1
Medieval and Early Modern Swedish Society . . 9

Chapter One - The Process: Traditional Marriage Formation in Medieval Sweden . . 19
1.1 The Swedish Process of Marriage Formation in Secular Custom and Law . . 19
1.2 Betrothal and the Consent of the Marriage Guardian . . 23
1.3 The Wedding and the Bedding: Enforcing the Contract . . 48
1.4 The Marriage Process and Property Consequences . . 66
1.5 Summary . . 86

Chapter Two - The Act: The Making of Marriage in Medieval Canon Law . . 89
2.1 Matrimony, Sacramentality and Ecclesiastical Jurisdiction: Defining and Supervising Marriage . . 89
2.2 The Church's Policy of Consent: Guaranteeing Individual Choice . . 101
2.3 The Church's Policy of Ecclesiastical Solemnization of Marriage . . 122
2.4 The Paradoxical Status of Consummation in Canon Law . . 135
2.5 Summary . . 145

Chapter Three - The Challenge: Controlling Marriage Formation in Medieval Sweden . . 149
3.1 Marriage and the Church in Medieval Sweden: Imposing Indissolubility and Combating Incest . . 149
3.2 The Secular Reaction to Free Consent: Securing the Guardian's Rights . . 154
3.3 Increasing Ecclesiastical Control of the Betrothal . . 183
3.4 The Growing Importance of Solemnization . . 204
3.5 Legitimacy of Children and The Marriage Process . . 229
3.6 Summary . . 256

Chapter Four - Ecclesiastical Control vs. Traditional Marriage Formation in Reformation Sweden . . 263
4.1 The Reformation and Matrimonial Law . . 263
4.2 The Lutheran Church and the Control of Marriage: The Net Tightens . . 272
4.3 Love or Duty: Free Choice and Parental Consent in Reformation Sweden . . 283
4.4 Trothplight, Betrothal and Consummation: Return to Formality . . 297
4.5 Increasing Insistence on Ecclesiastical Solemnization . . 323
4.6 The Marriage Process and Sexual Crime: Policing Illicit Intercourse . . 347
4.7 'Preserving the Difference': The Church, Children and their Parents . . 370
4.8 Summary . . 383

Chapter Five - Conclusion . . 389
5.1 Marriage Formation in Sweden, 1200—1600 . . 389
5.2 Why did the Traditional Swedish Marriage Process Persist for So Long? . . 397

Abbreviations . . 403
Sources and Bibliography . . 407
Index . . 429

Preface page ix
Acknowledgements xiii
List of Boxes xv

1 INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Weather and Climate 2
1.2 What Is Climate Variability and Climate Change? 2
1.3 Connections, Timescales and Uncertainties 3

2 RADIATION AND THE EARTH'S ENERGY BALANCE 10

2.1 Solar and Terrestrial Radiation 11
2.1.1 Radiation Laws 11
2.1.2 Solar Radiation 15
2.1.3 Terrestrial Radiation 15
2.1.4 The Energy Balance of the Earth 20
2.2 Solar Variability 27
2.3 Summary 30

3 THE ELEMENTS OF THE CLIMATE 32

3.1 The Atmosphere and Oceans in Motion 32
3.2 Atmospheric Circulation Patterns 36
3.3 Radiation Balance 45
3.4 The Hydrological Cycle 49
3.5 The Biosphere 50
3.6 Sustained Abnormal Weather Patterns 51
3.7 Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions 56
3.8 The Great Ocean Conveyor 67
3.9 Summary 71

4 EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE 73

4.1 Peering into the Abyss of Time 74
4.2 Atmospheric Composition 85
4.3 Sea Level Fluctuations 87
4.4 The Ice Ages 90
4.5 The End of the Last Ice Age 95
4.6 The Holocene Climatic Optimum 98
4.7 Changes in Recorded History 100
4.8 The Medieval Climatic Optimum 104
4.9 The 'Little Ice Age' 104
4.10 The Twentieth Century Warming 110
4.11 Concluding Observations 113

5 CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE 116

5.1 Geological Consequences 117
5.2 Flora and Fauna 118
5.3 Mass Extinctions 122
5.4 Glaciers, Ice Caps, Ice Sheets and Sea Levels 123
5.5 The Historical Impact of Climatic Variations 126
5.6 Agriculture 128
5.7 Spread of Diseases 132
5.8 The Economic Impact of Extreme Weather Events 134
5.9 Summary 137

6 THE MEASUREMENT OF CLIMATIC CHANGE 139

6.1 Instrumental Observations 140
6.2 Satellite Measurements 146
6.3 Historical Records 151
6.4 Proxy Measurements 153
6.4.1 Tree Rings 154
6.4.2 Ice Cores 157
6.4.3 Ocean Sediments 161
6.4.4 Pollen Records 163
6.4.5 Boreholes 166
6.4.6. Other Proxy Measurements 167
6.5 Dating 168
6.6 Isotope Age Dating 169
6.7 Summary 173

7 STATISTICS, SIGNIFICANCE AND CYCLES 175

7.1 Time Series, Sampling and Harmonic Analysis 176
7.2 Noise 180
7.3 Measures of Variability and Significance 182
7.4 Smoothing 193
7.5 Multidimensional Analysis 197
7.6 Summary 199

8 THE CAUSES OF CLIMATIC CHANGE 201

8.1 Autovariance and Non-linearity 202
8.2 Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions 204
8.3 Ocean Currents 207
8.4 Volcanoes 208
8.5 Sunspots and Solar Activity 211
8.6 Tidal Forces 217
8.7 Orbital Variations 221 8.8 Changes in Atmospheric Composition 225
8.9 Human Activities 227
8.10 Catastrophes and the 'Nuclear Winter' 230
8.11 Summary 235

9 MODELLING THE CLIMATE 239

9.1 Global Circulation Models 240
9.2 Simulation of Climatic Variability 247
9.3 The Challenges Facing Modellers 252
9.3.1 Clouds 253
9.3.2 Land-Surface Processes 254
9.3.3 Winds, Waves and Currents 255
9.3.4 Other Greenhouse Gases 256
9.3.5 Exploitation of Numerical Weather Prediction 256
9.4 Summary 257

10 PREDICTING CLIMATE CHANGE 259

101 Natural Variability 259
10.2 Predicting Global Warming 261
10.3 The Predicted Consequences of Global Warming 263
10.4 When Will We Be Certain About Global Warming? 267
10.5 Can We Do Anything About Climate Change? 271
10.6 The Gaia Hypothesis 273

Bibliography 277
Glossary 283
Index 293

Preface . . iii
Figures . . vii
Tables . . ix
Summary . . xi
Acknowledgments . . xix
Abbreviations . . xxi

CHAPTER ONE
Introduction . . 1
Purpose of This Monography . . 2
A Note on Contemporary Threats and Operations . . 4
Research Approach . . 4
Graphs Used in This Monograph . . 6
Conventional Wisdom . . 6
How This Monograph Is Organized . . 11

CHAPTER TWO
Classifying Outcomes and Selecting Cases . . 13
Outcomes . . 13
Type I: Government Loss . . 14
Type II: Government Victory . . 17
Type III: Mixed (Stalemate/Negotiated Settlement) . . 18
Type IV: Inconclusive or Ongoing Outcome . . 20
The Tipping Point: Explanation by Way of Example . . 21
Key Indicators: A Note of Caution . . 23

CHAPTER THREE
Assessments of Insurgency Endings: Time and External Factors . . 25
Assessments of Time and External Factors . . 27
Duration of Conflict . . 27
Sanctuary Available . . 34
Outside Intervention in Support of Government . . 49
Outside Intervention in Support of Insurgencies . . 62

CHAPTER FOUR
Assessments of Insurgency Endings: Internal Factors . . 77
Structure . . 77
Thailand and the BRN and the PULO . . 84
Urbanization . . 88
Uruguay and the Tupamaros . . 94
Insurgent Use of Terrorism . . 99
Insurgent Strength . . 110
System of Government . . 114

CHAPTER FIVE
Assessments of Insurgency Endings: Other Factors . . 127
Force Ratios . . 127
Civil-Defense Forces . . 141

CHAPTER SIX
Conclusions . . 151

APPENDIXES
A. Case Studies: Methodology . . 157
B. Supplemental Findings . . 165
C. Multivariate Regression Analysis . . 195
D. Insurgencies Not Examined for This Publication . . 199
E. Categories Used for the Spring 2006 Survey . . 203
F. Unavoidable Ambiguities . . 209
G. Questions Used for the Autumn 2006 Survey . . 215

Glossary . . 219
Bibliography . . 223

List of Illustrations . . vii
Preface . . ix

I FOUNDATIONS . . 1
1 Introduction . . 3
2 A Theory of Obstruction . . 15

II THE HISTORIC CONGRESS, 1789-1901 . . 37
3 The Escalation of Filibustering, 1789-1901 . . 39
4 Filibusters in the Historic Congress . . 57
5 Explaining Obstruction in the Historic Congress . . 78

III THE MODERN SENATE, 1901-PRESENT . . 97
6 The Growth of Filibustering in the Senate . . 99
7 Explaining the Rise of Filibustering in the Senate . . 133
8 From Attrition to Cloture: Institutionalizing the Filibuster . . 147

Afterword: The Future of the Senate . . 189
Notes . . 201
References . . 215
Index . . 227

ÚVOD . . 5
ORGANIZÁCIA . . 7
Demokratická strana v povstaní . . 9
Budovanie Demokratickej strany v prvých mesiacoch po oslobodení . . 32
Prvý celoslovenský zjazd Demokratickej strany v Martine . . 45
Formovanie vnútorných štruktúr strany - sekcie a záujmové odbory . . 60
Členovia a funkcionári Demokratickej strany . . 90
Stranícka tlač . . 151
Hospodárske zabezpečenie strany . . 159
Druhý celoslovenský zjazd Demokratickej strany v Bratislave v januári 1948 . . 163

PROGRAM . . 169
Vytvorenie Programových zásad Demokratickej strany v Povstaní . . 171
Programové tézy Demokratickej strany po oslobodení . . 175
Príprava nového programu strany v roku 1947 . . 177
Programové tézy prijaté na druhom celoslovenskom zjazde Demokratickej strany . . 182

POLITIKA . . 185
Ľudová demokracia a národne výbory . . 187
Hospodárske otázky v politike Demokratickej strany . . 195
Voľby 1946 . . 218
Slovenská otázka v politike Demokratickej strany . . 260
Retribúcia a proces s Jozefom Tisom . . 273
Zahraničnopolitické otázky v politike Demokratickej strany . . 292
Demokratická strana a branno-bezpečnostné zložky na Slovensku . . 308
Protištátne sprisahanie a politická kríza v jeseni 1947 na Slovensku . . 324
Demokratická strana a februárový prevrat v roku 1948 . . 343
Predstavitelia Demokratickej strany po februári 1948 . . 358

ZAVER . . 367
MENNÝ REGISTER . . 372
SUMMARY . . 381
ZUSAMMENFASSUNG . . 383
POUŽITE PRAMENE A LITERATÚRA . . 385