Cambridge University Press

Preface page ix
Acknowledgements xiii
List of Boxes xv

1 INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Weather and Climate 2
1.2 What Is Climate Variability and Climate Change? 2
1.3 Connections, Timescales and Uncertainties 3

2 RADIATION AND THE EARTH'S ENERGY BALANCE 10

2.1 Solar and Terrestrial Radiation 11
2.1.1 Radiation Laws 11
2.1.2 Solar Radiation 15
2.1.3 Terrestrial Radiation 15
2.1.4 The Energy Balance of the Earth 20
2.2 Solar Variability 27
2.3 Summary 30

3 THE ELEMENTS OF THE CLIMATE 32

3.1 The Atmosphere and Oceans in Motion 32
3.2 Atmospheric Circulation Patterns 36
3.3 Radiation Balance 45
3.4 The Hydrological Cycle 49
3.5 The Biosphere 50
3.6 Sustained Abnormal Weather Patterns 51
3.7 Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions 56
3.8 The Great Ocean Conveyor 67
3.9 Summary 71

4 EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE 73

4.1 Peering into the Abyss of Time 74
4.2 Atmospheric Composition 85
4.3 Sea Level Fluctuations 87
4.4 The Ice Ages 90
4.5 The End of the Last Ice Age 95
4.6 The Holocene Climatic Optimum 98
4.7 Changes in Recorded History 100
4.8 The Medieval Climatic Optimum 104
4.9 The 'Little Ice Age' 104
4.10 The Twentieth Century Warming 110
4.11 Concluding Observations 113

5 CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE 116

5.1 Geological Consequences 117
5.2 Flora and Fauna 118
5.3 Mass Extinctions 122
5.4 Glaciers, Ice Caps, Ice Sheets and Sea Levels 123
5.5 The Historical Impact of Climatic Variations 126
5.6 Agriculture 128
5.7 Spread of Diseases 132
5.8 The Economic Impact of Extreme Weather Events 134
5.9 Summary 137

6 THE MEASUREMENT OF CLIMATIC CHANGE 139

6.1 Instrumental Observations 140
6.2 Satellite Measurements 146
6.3 Historical Records 151
6.4 Proxy Measurements 153
6.4.1 Tree Rings 154
6.4.2 Ice Cores 157
6.4.3 Ocean Sediments 161
6.4.4 Pollen Records 163
6.4.5 Boreholes 166
6.4.6. Other Proxy Measurements 167
6.5 Dating 168
6.6 Isotope Age Dating 169
6.7 Summary 173

7 STATISTICS, SIGNIFICANCE AND CYCLES 175

7.1 Time Series, Sampling and Harmonic Analysis 176
7.2 Noise 180
7.3 Measures of Variability and Significance 182
7.4 Smoothing 193
7.5 Multidimensional Analysis 197
7.6 Summary 199

8 THE CAUSES OF CLIMATIC CHANGE 201

8.1 Autovariance and Non-linearity 202
8.2 Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions 204
8.3 Ocean Currents 207
8.4 Volcanoes 208
8.5 Sunspots and Solar Activity 211
8.6 Tidal Forces 217
8.7 Orbital Variations 221 8.8 Changes in Atmospheric Composition 225
8.9 Human Activities 227
8.10 Catastrophes and the 'Nuclear Winter' 230
8.11 Summary 235

9 MODELLING THE CLIMATE 239

9.1 Global Circulation Models 240
9.2 Simulation of Climatic Variability 247
9.3 The Challenges Facing Modellers 252
9.3.1 Clouds 253
9.3.2 Land-Surface Processes 254
9.3.3 Winds, Waves and Currents 255
9.3.4 Other Greenhouse Gases 256
9.3.5 Exploitation of Numerical Weather Prediction 256
9.4 Summary 257

10 PREDICTING CLIMATE CHANGE 259

101 Natural Variability 259
10.2 Predicting Global Warming 261
10.3 The Predicted Consequences of Global Warming 263
10.4 When Will We Be Certain About Global Warming? 267
10.5 Can We Do Anything About Climate Change? 271
10.6 The Gaia Hypothesis 273

Bibliography 277
Glossary 283
Index 293

Preface . . xi

I Foundations . . 1

1 Introduction . . 3
1.1 Overview . . 4
1.2 History of Machine Translation . . 14
1.3 Applications . . 20
1.4 Available Resources . . 23
1.5 Summary . . 26

2 Words, Sentences, Corpora . . 33
2.1 Words . . 33
2.2 Sentences . . 45
2.3 Corpora . . 53
2.4 Summary . . 57

3 Probability Theory . . 63
3.1 Estimating Probability Distributions . . 63
3.2 Calculating Probability Distributions . . 67
3.3 Properties of Probability Distributions . . 71
3.4 Summary . . 75

II Core Methods . . 79

4 Word-Based Models . . 81
4.1 Machine Translation by Translating Words . . 81
4.2 Learning Lexical Translation Models . . 87
4.3 Ensuring Fluent Output . . 94
4.4 Higher IBM Models . . 96
4.5 Word Alignment . . 113
4.6 Summary . . 118

5 Phrase-Based Models . . 127
5.1 Standard Model . . 127
5.2 Learning a Phrase Translation Table . . 130
5.3 Extensions to the Translation Model . . 136
5.4 Extensions to the Reordering Model . . 142
5.5 EM Training of Phrase-Based Models . . 145
5.6 Summary . . 148

6 Decoding . . 155
6.1 Translation Process . . 156
6.2 Beam Search . . 158
6.3 Future Cost Estimation . . 167
6.4 Other Decoding Algorithms . . 172
6.5 Summary . . 176

7 Language Models . . 181
7.1 N-Gram Language Models . . 182
7.2 Count Smoothing . . 188
7.3 Interpolation and Back-off . . 196
7.4 Managing the Size of the Model . . 204
7.5 Summary . . 212

8 Evaluation . . 217
8.1 Manual Evaluation . . 218
8.2 Automatic Evaluation . . 222
8.3 Hypothesis Testing . . 232
8.4 Task-Oriented Evaluation . . 237
8.5 Summary . . 240

III Advanced Topics . . 247

9 Discriminative Training . . 249
9.1 Finding Candidate Translations . . 250
9.2 Principles of Discriminative Methods . . 255
9.3 Parameter Tuning . . 263
9.4 Large-Scale Discriminative Training . . 272
9.5 Posterior Methods and System Combination . . 278
9.6 Summary . . 283

10 Integrating Linguistic Information . . 289
10.1 Transliteration . . 291
10.2 Morphology . . 296
10.3 Syntactic Restructuring . . 302
10.4 Syntactic Features . . 310
10.5 Factored Translation Models . . 314
10.6 Summary . . 320

11 Tree-Based Models . . 331
11.1 Synchronous Grammars . . 331
11.2 Learning Synchronous Grammars . . 337
11.3 Decoding by Parsing . . 346
11.4 Summary . . 363

Bibliography . . 371
Author Index . . 416
Index . . 427

Preface . . ix

1 Introduction . . 1
2 Human fatness in broad context . . 16
3 Proximate causes of lipid deposition and oxidation . . 49
4 The ontogenetic development of adiposity . . 92
5 The life-course induction of adiposity . . 118
6 The fitness value of fat . . 153
7 The evolutionary biology of adipose tissue . . 195
8 Adiposity in hominin evolution . . 215
9 Adiposity in human evolution . . 244
10 The evolution of human obesity . . 270

References . . 302
Index . . 363

List of contributors . . ix
Foreword . . xi
Preface . . xiii
List of abbreviations . . xvi

Part I. Setting the stage
1 Introduction . . 3
2 Interpretation of biodiversity . . 14
3 Biodiversity conservation and development: challenges for impact assessment . . 59

Part II. Assessment tools
4 The impact assessment framework . . 87
5 Environmental assessment . . 125
6 Biodiversity in Environmental Impact Assessment . . 154
7 Biodiversity-inclusive Strategic Environmental Assessment . . 205

Part III. Emerging issues
8 Reconciling conservation and development: the role of biodiversity offsets . . 255
9 Valuation of ecosystem services: lessons from influential cases . . 287

Epilogue - Topics in need of further elaboration . . 328
Annex: valuation of ecosystem services: influential cases . . 334
Rerences . . 398
Index . . 434

Preface . . xi
Conventions . . xiv

1 Aperitifs . . 1
1.1 Diffusion . . 1
1.2 Single-species annihilation/coalescence . . 4
1.3 Two-species annihilation . . 9
1.4 Notes . . 10

2 Diffusion . . 12
2.1 The probability distribution . . 12
2.2 Central limit theorem . . 15
2.3 Walks with broad distributions . . 17
2.4 Application to gravity: the Holtsmark distribution . . 22
2.5 First-passage properties . . 26
2.6 Exit probabilities and exit times . . 30
2.7 Reaction rate theory . . 37
2.8 The Langevin approach . . 40
2.9 Application to surface growth . . 44
2.10 Notes . . 51
2.11 Problems . . 51

3 Collisions . . 59
3.1 Kinetic theory . . 51
3.2 The Lorentz gas . . 63
3.3 Lorentz gas in an external field . . 70
3.4 Collisional impact . . 75
3.5 Maxwell molecules and very hard particles . . 77
3.6 Inelastic gases . . 81
3.7 Ballistic agglomeration . . 89
3.8 Single-lane traffic . . 92
3.9 Notes . . 96
3.10 Problems . . 97

4 Exclusion . . 103
4.1 Symmetric exclusion process . . 103
4.2 Asymmetric exclusion process . . 108
4.3 Hydrodynamic approach . . 112
4.4 Microscopic approach . . 118
4.5 Open systems . . 123
4.6 Notes . . 130
4.7 Problems . . 131

5 Aggregation . . 134
5.1 The master equations . . 134
5.2 Exact solution methods . . 137
5.3 Gelation . . 145
5.4 Scaling . . 153
5.5 Aggregation with input . . 156
5.6 Exchange-driven growth . . 163
5.7 Notes . . 167
5.8 Problems . . 168

6 Fragmentation . . 172
6.1 Binary fragmentation . . 172
6.2 Planar fragmentation . . 180
6.3 Reversible polymerization . . 185
6.4 Collisional fragmentation . . 191
6.5 Notes . . 195
6.6 Problems . . 195

7 Adsorption . . 199
7.1 Random sequential adsorption in one dimension . . 199
7.2 Phase space structure . . 206
7.3 Adsorption in higher dimensions . . 213
7.4 Reversible adsorption . . 220
7.5 Polymer translocation . . 226
7.6 Notes . . 229
7.7 Problems . . 230

8 Spin dynamics . . 233
8.1 Phenomenology of coarsening . . 233
8.2 The voter model . . 235
8.3 Ising-Glauber model . . 244
8.4 Mean-field approximation . . 247
8.5 Glauber dynamics in one dimension . . 249
8.6 Glauber dynamics in higher dimensions . . 258
8.7 Spin-excnange dynamics . . 264
8.8 Cluster dynamics . . 269
8.9 Notes . . 273
8.10 Problems . . 274

9 Coarsening . . 277
9.1 Models . . 277
9.2 Free evolution . . 280
9.3 Case studies in non-conservative dynamics . . 283
9.4 Final states . . 292
9.5 Defects . . 294
9.6 Conservative dynamics . . 302
9.7 Extremal dynamics . . 307
9.8 Nucleation and growth . . 312
9.9 Notes . . 317
9.10 Problems . . 318

10 Disorder . . 322
10.1 Disordered spin chain . . 322
10.2 Random walk in a random potential . . 331
10.3 Random walk in random velocity fields . . 339
10.4 Notes . . 343
10.5 Problems . . 343

11 Hysteresis . . 346
11.1 Homogeneous f erromagnets . . 346
11.2 Perturbation analysis . . 349
11.3 Disordered ferromagnets . . 357
11.4 Mean-field model . . 361
11.5 Hysteresis in the random-field Ising chain . . 366
11.6 Notes . . 370
11.7 Problems . . 370

12 Population dynamics . . 373
12.1 Continuum formulation . . 373
12.2 Discrete reactions . . 382
12.3 Small-fluctuatHi expansion . . 391
12.4 Large fluctuations . . 394
12.5 Notes . . 399
12.6 Problems . . 400

13 Diffusive reactions . . 404
13.1 Role of the spatial dimension . . 404
13.2 The trapping reaction . . 409
13.3 Two-species annihilation . . 414
13.4 Single-species reactions in one dimension . . 417
13.5 Reactions in spatial gradients . . 428
13.6 Notes . . 436
13.7 Problems . . 437

14 Complex networks . . 441
14.1 Non-lattice networks . . 441
14.2 Evolving random graphs . . 443
14.3 Random recursive trees . . 451
14.4 Preferential attachment . . 456
14.5 Fluctuations in networks . . 460
14.6 Notes . . 465
14.7 Problems . . 466

References . . 471
Index . . 483

FOREWORD . . vii
PROLOGUE . . 1
1 AN END AND A BEGINNING . . 7
2 TRAINING FOR COSMOLOGY . . 31
3 THE STAR MAKERS . . 60
4 HOYLE'S SECRET WAR . . 81
5 THE NATURE OF THE UNIVERSE . . 108
6 LIVES OF THE STARS . . 142
7 CLASH OF TITANS . . 167
8 ORIGIN OF THE CHEMICAL ELEMENTS . . 197
9 MATTERS OF GRAVITY . . 223
10 MOUNTAINS TO CLIMB . . 255
11 THE WATERSHED . . 277
12 STONES, BONES, BUGS AND ACCIDENTS . . 293

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . . 324
NOTES . . 326
BIBLIOGRAPHY . . 345
INDEX . . 354

Acknowledgments . . xi
Acronyms . . xv

1 Political Violence and Social Movements: An Introduction . . 1
2 Escalating Policing . . 32
3 Competitive Escalation . . 70
4 The Activation of Militant Networks . . 113
5 Organizational Compartmentalization . . 146
6 Action Militarization . . 174
7 Ideological Encapsulation . . 204
8 Militant Enclosure . . 235
9 Leaving Clandestinity? Reversing Mechanisms of Engagement . . 263
10 Clandestine Political Violence: Conclusions . . 282

Primary Sources . . 295
Bibliographical References . . 297
Index . . 321

Maps and Tables . . x
Acknowledgments . . xi
Abbreviations . . xv
Glossary . . xvii

Introduction . . 1

THE CHALLENGE: UNEQUAL CITIZENSHIP
1 Comparative Perspectives on Citizen Creation in Africa . . 19
2 The Historical Context for Modern Ethiopian Citizenship . . 44

THE RESPONSE: THE STATE AND ITS CITIZENS
3 Popular Responses to Unequal Citizenship . . 91
4 A Referendum on Ethnic Identity and the Claims of Citizenship . . 120
5 No Going Back on Self-Determination for the Oromo . . 139
6 Ethiopian Women and Citizenship Rights Deferred Conclusion . . 192

Appendix I Methodology . . 205
Appendix II Questionnaire for Parents and Community Members (English) . . 210
Appendix III Questionnaire for School Directors . . 214
Appendix IV Questionnaire for Teachers . . 217
Bibliography . . 221
Index . . 243

List of illustrations . . ix
List of tables . . xv
Acknowledgements . . xvi

1 Introduction . . 1
1.1 The Arandic language region . . 4
1.2 A multimodal approach to communication . . 6
1.3 Sign and gesture in sand stories . . 12
1.4 Tracks and traces: iconicity in sign, sand and gesture . . 16
1.5 Space and frames of reference . . 19
1.6 A multimodal perspective on gradient phenomena . . 28
1.7 Relationships between gesture and speech . . 30
1.8 Outline of the remainder of the book . . 32

2 Sand stories as social and cultural practice . . 35
2.1 Previous documentations of sand stories . . 35
2.2 Lexical semantics of the terra tyepety . . 41
2.3 Dreamtime, Dreaming and the meanings of Altyerr . . 43
2.4 Sand story styles . . 44
2.5 Techniques and tools . . 53
2.6 Mapping, diagramming and games in Central Australia . . 59
2.7 Sand stories and awely ceremonies . . 64
2.8 The end of the story . . 66
2.9 Concluding comment . . 68

3 Catching a move as it flies: multimodal data collection and annotation . . 71
3.1 Recording naturalistic data in challenging conditions . . 72
3.2 Coding and transcription . . 74
3.3 The 'sand quiz': testing the meaning of V-units . . 88
3.4 Representing multimodal events as transcript . . 93
3.5 Concluding comment . . 98

4 Lines in the sand . . 100
4.1 Conventionalized ground-ground type V-units . . 101
4.2 Visible paths in sand . . 115
4.3 Combinations of static and dynamic elements . . 119
4.4 Motion and multimodality . . 121
4.5 The interprefcon of motion in space . . 128
4.6 Innovation and change . . 131
4.7 Concluding comment . . 135

5 Body-anchored and airborne action . . 137
5.1 Previous work on Aboriginal sign languages and gesture in Australia . . 137
5.2 Handsigns in sand stories . . 145
5.3 Pointing in sand stories . . 152
5.4 A tunnel ball game in sand . .  157
5.5 Concluding comment . . 163

6 Ordering, redrawing and erasure . . 166
6.1 V-units and the order of narrative events . . 166
6.2 Erasing the story space . . 176
6.3 The role of deictic units in transitions between frames . . 191

7 Vocal style in sand stories . . 195
7.1 'Talking song' and 'singing story' . . 196
7.2 Some features of Arandic songs . . 198
7.3 Doodlebugs and bogeymen: repeated text and borrowed words in a sand story . . 203
7.4 A 'sung' sand story . . 209
7.5 Concluding comment . . 219

8 Crossing boundaries . . 222
8.1 Multimodality, forms and functions in sand stories . . 223
8.2 Alternative representations in sand, sign and gesture . . 224
8.3 Convention or continuously varying forms? . . 227
8.4 Coordination across modalities . . 230
8.5 Verbal art, visual art . . 231
8.6 Inscriptive practices: beyond Central Australia . . 235
8.7 Concluding comment . . 240

Appendix 1: Abbreviations, glossing and orthographic conventions . . 244
Appendix 2: Summary of six stories annotated in detail . . 247
Bibliography . . 248
Index . . 265

Acknowledgments . . xi

Introduction . . 1
1 Early Days . . 4
2 9/11 and the Search for a Policy . . 19
3 Roadmap to Disengagement . . 48
4 "New Realities on the Ground" . . 98
5 Arafat, Disengagement, Sharon . . 119
6 Olmert - Peace or War? . . 158
7 War in Lebanon - and Condi . . 179
8 From Mecca to Annapolis . . 212
9 The "Meeting" at Annapolis . . 244
10 Two Trips to Jerusalem . . 262
11 Final Days in Gaza and Turtle Bay . . 282
12 Lessons Learned . . 304
13 Conclusion . . 314

Index . . 321