List of illustrations . . ix
Preface . . xi
Acknowledgments . . xiii

1 Understanding unintended outcomes of social movements . . 1 
An unintended outcome of the 1989 Chinese student movement . . 2 
Two reasons why the Tiananmen tragedy has not been presented as an unintended outcome . . 11 
The advantages of applying a game theoretical approach . . 23 
An important assumption . . 26 
A theory of interaction between social movements and state . . 28 

2 A brief history of the Chinese student movement for democracy 
  (15 April 1989 to 4 June 1989) . . 31

3 Anti-threat resistance: a game with incomplete information . . 66
Preference structure: the mechanics of interaction . . 67 
A model of movement development . . 68 
Private information and a changed preference structure . . 73 
A game with incomplete information . . 77 
Conclusion . . 86 

4 State's sub-optimal strategies: a two-level game . . 89
A two-level game 90 . . 90
The complexity of choosing a strategy in the two-level game . . 94 
Incentives for consistency between the two games . . 95 
A supplementary theory of consistency and sub-optimal strategies . . 96 
Significant impacts of the state's sub-optimal strategies on movement development . . 100 
Conclusion . . 101 

5 Short-term gain and long-term loss for the participants: 
  the dynamics of repeated games . . 103
The participants' changing beliefs: diminishing dangers . . 106
The participants' increasing payoff, X3 . . 110  
The participants' constant payoff, X2 . . 114 
Decreasing the probability of the state choosing the sub-optimal strategy . . 115 
Short-term gain and long-term loss for the participants . . 119 
Conclusion . . 122 

6 Information gap and bloody confrontation: the final game . . 124 
State's threats: interdependent or independent . . 125 
State's interests: the tangible interests of the present or 
the intangible interests of the future . . 128 
The foundation for the formation of the participants'
beliefs: past experience or a correct understanding of the current situation . . 133 
Conclusion . . 13S 

Appendix . . 138
Bibliography . . 140
Index . . 146